I have some general questions related to FPGA.
What do people in this forum see is the future of FPGA 4 to 5 years
down the line?
What are the applications it is most widely used right now, and what
will be the applications that it will be highly used in a near future?
Currently, on average, a consumer (who may own cellphone, camera,
camcorder, ipod, etc.) owns zero FPGAs. Do you see this ratio of number
of FPGAs/consumer changing?
Or. Do you see power and clock speed to continue to remain as major
bottlenecks for FPGAs compared to ASICs in the next few years? Or will
the difference diminish in sub 65nm technologies? Or will it blow up??
There are two main advantages, as I see, of FPGAs over ASICs or
processors - ability to implement designs faster (shorter time to
market) and ability to perform easy "firmware updates". Will these two
factors ever influence the decisions of designers to switch to FPGAs
completely in the future?
If you are not as optimistic about FPGAs as I am sounding, what major
bottlenecks do you think will check FPGA growth?
I am starting my PhD in FPGAs (and looking for topics of research!?!)
and thus interested in knowing the future uses of FPGAs.
> Hi All,
>
> I have some general questions related to FPGA.
> What do people in this forum see is the future of FPGA 4 to 5 years
> down the line?
> What are the applications it is most widely used right now, and what
> will be the applications that it will be highly used in a near future?
> Currently, on average, a consumer (who may own cellphone, camera,
> camcorder, ipod, etc.) owns zero FPGAs. Do you see this ratio of number
> of FPGAs/consumer changing?
>
> Or. Do you see power and clock speed to continue to remain as major
> bottlenecks for FPGAs compared to ASICs in the next few years? Or will
> the difference diminish in sub 65nm technologies? Or will it blow up??
>
> There are two main advantages, as I see, of FPGAs over ASICs or
> processors - ability to implement designs faster (shorter time to
> market) and ability to perform easy "firmware updates". Will these two
> factors ever influence the decisions of designers to switch to FPGAs
> completely in the future?
What about the NRE costs of ASICs ?
>
> If you are not as optimistic about FPGAs as I am sounding, what major
> bottlenecks do you think will check FPGA growth?
>
> I am starting my PhD in FPGAs (and looking for topics of research!?!)
> and thus interested in knowing the future uses of FPGAs.
>
> Thanks.
You can forecast FPGA trends a little by looking at the foundres.
eg Look up the recent PR by TSMC, that their first release devices on
65nm will be power optimised, not speed optimised, driven by customer
demand.
They call this a "RECONFIGURABLE MICRO-CONTROLLER WITH DUAL MAC DSP"
which has 16MBit DRAM, 300MHz ARM9, 600MHZ DSP, and a 200K FPGA,
Dual ethernet, ADC/DAC....
FPGAs have been moving from custom-cell-less ( simple sea of LCs ) to
include more hard silicon blocks, like multipliers, RAM, DSP kernal
cells, and even uP.
That trend will continue, & the 'Gate Array' name no longer strictly
applies.
lovesinghal wrote:
> [...]
> What do people in this forum see is the future of FPGA 4 to 5 years
> down the line?
> What are the applications it is most widely used right now, and what
> will be the applications that it will be highly used in a near future?
> Currently, on average, a consumer (who may own cellphone, camera,
> camcorder, ipod, etc.) owns zero FPGAs. Do you see this ratio of number
> of FPGAs/consumer changing?
Although on average it is indeed very, very low, it's already more than
zero:
Now, it was wondered in that and other threads if the FPGA was a
permanent fixture in the product, or a stop-gap due to high profit
margins and fast design rollout (such that once the design has settled
down, they will likely switch to an ASIC?).
> Or. Do you see power and clock speed to continue to remain as major
> bottlenecks for FPGAs compared to ASICs in the next few years? Or will
> the difference diminish in sub 65nm technologies? Or will it blow up??
I assume Altera does this as well, but Xilinx likes to throw around
meaningless comparisons about how much it would cost their customer(s)
do to a design in the current state-of-the-art (90 nm, for example).
What they neglect to mention is that you would likely not need to use
anything close to that to achieve your performance targets (if you
design was gong to work in an FPGA), so your NRE's would likely be
considerably lower than theirs. Note that I am not saying anything
about which is actually cheaper for a given design. The actual NRE or
per-piece prices are so highly variable from one design to another that
I dont think anything except a formal quote on a particular design
would be able to tell you the answer.
> There are two main advantages, as I see, of FPGAs over ASICs or
> processors - ability to implement designs faster (shorter time to
> market) and ability to perform easy "firmware updates". Will these two
> factors ever influence the decisions of designers to switch to FPGAs
> completely in the future?
There's also resource availabilty (money and man-power, in addition to
design time, as you mentioned): at least for smaller design firms, the
obvious answer is to use FPGA's initially, for all the usual reasons.
But after it has hit the market, do you dedicate your scarce resources
to respinning that part into an ASIC, or to develop the next best thing
that might sell even better? You might take a hit of a few percent of
the gross profit margin, but in the grand scheme of things, perhaps
that is the smarter thing to do.
> If you are not as optimistic about FPGAs as I am sounding, what major
> bottlenecks do you think will check FPGA growth?
Despite the above statements, I'm fairly optimistic that overall FPGA
sales will continue to grow... I think the $/LUT has dropped low enough
that companies will continue to go for the FPGA's for all the usual
reasons.
> I am starting my PhD in FPGAs (and looking for topics of research!?!)
> and thus interested in knowing the future uses of FPGAs.
> If you are not as optimistic about FPGAs as I am sounding, what major
> bottlenecks do you think will check FPGA growth?
>
> I am starting my PhD in FPGAs (and looking for topics of research!?!)
> and thus interested in knowing the future uses of FPGAs.
You're basing a PhD on a few guys comments in a newsgroup ?
Impressive...
> I am starting my PhD in FPGAs (and looking for topics of research!?!)
> and thus interested in knowing the future uses of FPGAs.
Some well-thought-out responses to the majority of the questions that
you've posed can be found in panel sessions or keynote addresses in
conferences like FPGA and FPL from the past couple of years. (For some
reason, keynote speakers at these conferences just *love* to rattle the
"ASIC vs. FPGA" debate.)
As a PhD student, you should have access to the speakers' PowerPoint
slides through your university ...
Hi All,
Thanks for your responses.
Marc and Jim, your responses were very interesting. I learned a lot
going through those searches.
Rene, I did not say that I will base my PhD topic on this discussion.
My advisor is helping me decide a topic in a major way. Through this
side discussion, I want to know the industry opinion and opinions of
people who use FPGAs in their designs.
> Rene, I did not say that I will base my PhD topic on this discussion.
> My advisor is helping me decide a topic in a major way. Through this
> side discussion, I want to know the industry opinion and opinions of
> people who use FPGAs in their designs.
Ok, you couldn't have known. The FPGAs are great to work
with, enable a lot of developments and save a lot of work.
Whether they further evolve or not doesn't change much
as what is here already is plenty.
The development is a bit too fast though.
When you do a new design with brand new chips, then they
tend to be outdated the next time you assemble a batch.
What do people in this forum see is the future of FPGA 4 to 5 years down the line?
FPGA, generic processor, or ASIC? ASICs have won out for consumer applications until recently, but now generic processors are doing tasks that used to be done almost exclusively with ASICs. Take MPEG decoding and/or encoding, like in a DVR for instance. There used to be a dozen or two different chip manufacturers that produced ASICs for this field, and now most of them aren't even bothering to come out with new products. The push seems to be using DSPs to do these things, the TI chips being the obvious leader. Part of this has to do with the ever-changing MPEG-4 "standard" and manufacturers being unwilling to commit tons of resources to design a chip that may be obsolete in a year, but it also makes sense from a technical and risk standpoint to do it in software instead of hardware. DSPs are also very power-efficient, even running full out at 600 MHz or more. Less demanding applications have already gone to generic processors, too.
What are the applications it is most widely used right now, and what will be the applications that it will be highly used in a near future?
Prototyping ASICs. Relatively low-volume tasks where cost is not necessarily the overwhelming priority, instead it's flexibility or development time (space, military, etc.). High-end applications where performance of DSPs is not enough (heavy-duty FIR filtering, etc.). Future applications will be the same as now.
Currently, on average, a consumer (who may own cellphone, camera, camcorder, ipod, etc.) owns zero FPGAs. Do you see this ratio of number of FPGAs/consumer changing?
No.
Or. Do you see power and clock speed to continue to remain as major bottlenecks for FPGAs compared to ASICs in the next few years? Or will the difference diminish in sub 65nm technologies? Or will it blow up??
DSPs and generic processors will continue to take over for ASICs. FPGAs will remain a niche market.
There are two main advantages, as I see, of FPGAs over ASICs or processors - ability to implement designs faster (shorter time to market) and ability to perform easy "firmware updates". Will these two factors ever influence the decisions of designers to switch to FPGAs completely in the future?
Designers of what? Consumer products? No, only if cost is reduced to compete with DSPs, generic processors, and ASICs. Most ASICs these days use microcode anyway and are already firmware upgradable. DSP firmware can be upgraded as easily (perhaps easier) than FPGAs. DSPs have little of the clock speed and power consumption disadvantages of FPGAs, and are cheap too.
If you are not as optimistic about FPGAs as I am sounding, what major bottlenecks do you think will check FPGA growth?
In most applications generic processors will do the job just fine and cost less, burn less power, and might even be cheaper to develop with. Software programmers are cheap nowadays.
Good questions. I hope lots of people respond and give their two cents.
Austin
Chris wrote:
> What do people in this forum see is the future of FPGA 4 to 5 years down the line?
>
> FPGA, generic processor, or ASIC? ASICs have won out for consumer applications until recently, but now generic processors are doing tasks that used to be done almost exclusively with ASICs. Take MPEG decoding and/or encoding, like in a DVR for instance. There used to be a dozen or two different chip manufacturers that produced ASICs for this field, and now most of them aren't even bothering to come out with new products. The push seems to be using DSPs to do these things, the TI chips being the obvious leader. Part of this has to do with the ever-changing MPEG-4 "standard" and manufacturers being unwilling to commit tons of resources to design a chip that may be obsolete in a year, but it also makes sense from a technical and risk standpoint to do it in software instead of hardware. DSPs are also very power-efficient, even running full out at 600 MHz or more. Less demanding applications have already gone to generic processors, too.
>
> What are the applications it is most widely used right now, and what will be the applications that it will be highly used in a near future?
>
> Prototyping ASICs. Relatively low-volume tasks where cost is not necessarily the overwhelming priority, instead it's flexibility or development time (space, military, etc.). High-end applications where performance of DSPs is not enough (heavy-duty FIR filtering, etc.). Future applications will be the same as now.
>
> Currently, on average, a consumer (who may own cellphone, camera, camcorder, ipod, etc.) owns zero FPGAs. Do you see this ratio of number of FPGAs/consumer changing?
>
> No.
>
> Or. Do you see power and clock speed to continue to remain as major bottlenecks for FPGAs compared to ASICs in the next few years? Or will the difference diminish in sub 65nm technologies? Or will it blow up??
>
> DSPs and generic processors will continue to take over for ASICs. FPGAs will remain a niche market.
>
> There are two main advantages, as I see, of FPGAs over ASICs or processors - ability to implement designs faster (shorter time to market) and ability to perform easy "firmware updates". Will these two factors ever influence the decisions of designers to switch to FPGAs completely in the future?
>
> Designers of what? Consumer products? No, only if cost is reduced to compete with DSPs, generic processors, and ASICs. Most ASICs these days use microcode anyway and are already firmware upgradable. DSP firmware can be upgraded as easily (perhaps easier) than FPGAs. DSPs have little of the clock speed and power consumption disadvantages of FPGAs, and are cheap too.
>
> If you are not as optimistic about FPGAs as I am sounding, what major bottlenecks do you think will check FPGA growth?
>
> In most applications generic processors will do the job just fine and cost less, burn less power, and might even be cheaper to develop with. Software programmers are cheap nowadays.
> What do people in this forum see is the future of FPGA 4 to 5 years down
> the line?
>
> FPGA, generic processor, or ASIC?
My preference would be for FPGA with more specialized functions, and a
(really) user-friendly software development environment: pseudo visual
programming, no need for external toolchains for embedded CPUs development,
integrated debugging instead of crappy simulators, and so on. FPGA are
cool, there are a lot of special applications where they are already (and
always will be) the best choice; but for the real breakthrough, IMHO they
have to win the match with generic 16- and 32-bit microcontrollers/DSP for
small and medium-volume applications.
> Currently, on average, a consumer (who may own cellphone, camera,
> camcorder, ipod, etc.) owns zero FPGAs. Do you see this ratio of number
> of FPGAs/consumer changing?
I really don't know much about ASIC, but as far as I can see, I don't think
that FPGA would ever be the right choice for this type of volume
applications. If I plan to sell one million of units, I don't care much if
I have to spend one million dollars for ASIC setup, if then one chip will
cost one dollar (ASIC) instead of ten (FPGA).
> There are two main advantages, as I see, of FPGAs over ASICs or
> processors - ability to implement designs faster (shorter time to
> market) and ability to perform easy "firmware updates".
Generic processors are as fast developing and upgradable than FPGA (if not
more), and I used to think that the development steps for ASIC and FPGA
until the "real" manufacturing were very similar. Am I wrong?
And by the way, I don't think that if you order one million FPGA, either
Xilinx or Altera will ship them overnight.
lovesinghal wrote:
> Hi All,
> Thanks for your responses.
> Marc and Jim, your responses were very interesting. I learned a lot
> going through those searches.
> Rene, I did not say that I will base my PhD topic on this discussion.
> My advisor is helping me decide a topic in a major way. Through this
> side discussion, I want to know the industry opinion and opinions of
> people who use FPGAs in their designs.
Here's another research node : Besides the STW22000 device, in one
of the interviews the Cell Processor designers mentioned having
configurable IO (and how that allowed design closure earlier).
[IIRC IBM does have a cross license to Xilinx FPGAs - Xilinx got the
PowerPC in return].
Does anyone have info on just how configurable the Cell processor IO
is ? Which tool flows support it ?
> Currently, on average, a consumer (who may own cellphone, camera,
> camcorder, ipod, etc.) owns zero FPGAs. Do you see this ratio of number
> of FPGAs/consumer changing?
There was a thread here recently where someone saw a Spartan3 part in
their new flatscreen TV.
> My preference would be for FPGA with more specialized functions
Here come my wishes:
1. Built-in tamper-resistant cryptoprocessor block with write-only
nonvolatile
memory. There should be no way to read this memory, neither externally
(through JTAG, SignalTap etc.) nor internally, because it should contain
a wide (at least 128 bits!) symmetric key. This block should have serial
input and serial output and encrypt its input data using something very
strong, say AES. It doesn't have to be fast, but must be as secure as
possible.
2. Configuration bitstreams MUST be encrypted to prevent cloning and
to open the field of data encryption to FPGAs -- today every moron with
a logic analyzer can easily crack a SRAM FPGA-based scrambler.
The encryption block mentioned above can be reused for bitstream
encryption too. In this case SRAM-based configuration would not be
a problem.
3. There should be a way to "destroy" the chip from its internals, i.e.
to make it useless. This could be a trurly physical destruction, but
if the cryptoprocessor's nonvolatile memory block were erased, it
would be enough.
4. Fuses, more fuses! JTAG disable, readback disable etc.
> I don't think
> that FPGA would ever be the right choice for this type of volume
> applications. If I plan to sell one million of units, I don't care much if
> I have to spend one million dollars for ASIC setup, if then one chip will
> cost one dollar (ASIC) instead of ten (FPGA).
Look at the trend in the cost of ASIC setup. Compare that with
the trend in FPGA gates-per-dollar. Look five years ahead. Now
consider a choice between ASIC setup of $2M and an FPGA
costing $3. Which would you choose? Once you've had to do a
couple of re-spins because your design wasn't quite right first time,
your FPGA is looking very cheap. And that's before you factor in
the time-to-market advantage.
Making chips is really hard, and is getting harder. More and more
companies are realizing that it makes good business sense to let
somone else take the hit on sub-micron design, qualification and
testing. This leaves their engineers more time for inventing things
that actually add value.
Me? I think FPGAs will kill cell-based ASIC within ten years.
How's that for optimism? :-)
Ben Jones wrote:
>>I don't think
>>that FPGA would ever be the right choice for this type of volume
>>applications. If I plan to sell one million of units, I don't care much if
>>I have to spend one million dollars for ASIC setup, if then one chip will
>>cost one dollar (ASIC) instead of ten (FPGA).
>
>
> Look at the trend in the cost of ASIC setup. Compare that with
> the trend in FPGA gates-per-dollar. Look five years ahead. Now
> consider a choice between ASIC setup of $2M and an FPGA
> costing $3. Which would you choose? Once you've had to do a
> couple of re-spins because your design wasn't quite right first time,
> your FPGA is looking very cheap. And that's before you factor in
> the time-to-market advantage.
>
> Making chips is really hard, and is getting harder. More and more
> companies are realizing that it makes good business sense to let
> somone else take the hit on sub-micron design, qualification and
> testing. This leaves their engineers more time for inventing things
> that actually add value.
>
> Me? I think FPGAs will kill cell-based ASIC within ten years.
> How's that for optimism? :-)
A more interesting question, is when will we see the first MicroBlaze
or Nios in FPGA silicon [not as a soft-cpu]?
They are getting close to stable enough to do this.
Or, when we will see a soft-boundary HardCopy - where you can move
only PART of the total design into ASIC, and keep the rest as a smaller
FPGA.
> A more interesting question, is when will we see the first MicroBlaze
> or Nios in FPGA silicon [not as a soft-cpu]?
> They are getting close to stable enough to do this.
True, although I don't see much value in that approach. Those architectures
were designed with FPGA as the target technology, so mapping them
straight to silicon might not give the best results. What's wrong with the
PowerPC core?
> Or, when we will see a soft-boundary HardCopy - where you can move
> only PART of the total design into ASIC, and keep the rest as a smaller
> FPGA.
Developing and testing your design in FPGA and then hardening it just before
putting it into mass production is rather like wearing a life-jacket in the
harbour
and then throwing it overboard as you set out to sea...
>> A more interesting question, is when will we see the first MicroBlaze
>>or Nios in FPGA silicon [not as a soft-cpu]?
>> They are getting close to stable enough to do this.
>
>
> True, although I don't see much value in that approach. Those architectures
> were designed with FPGA as the target technology, so mapping them
> straight to silicon might not give the best results.
They already license it for ASICs, so it's mainly a question of
when it will appear, not if.
eg Why do we have HW multipliers & DSP blocks now ? - because they
are much faster, and lower power, than FPGA fabric solutions.
> What's wrong with the PowerPC core?
Let's see - Price, die area....
>
>> Or, when we will see a soft-boundary HardCopy - where you can move
>>only PART of the total design into ASIC, and keep the rest as a smaller
>>FPGA.
>
>
> Developing and testing your design in FPGA and then hardening it just before
> putting it into mass production is rather like wearing a life-jacket in the
> harbour and then throwing it overboard as you set out to sea...
Which is why you might want move the proven stuff into HardCopy (or
whatever), and keep the smaller, fluid portion, in FPGA.
> eg Why do we have HW multipliers & DSP blocks now ? - because they
> are much faster, and lower power, than FPGA fabric solutions.
They are also functions with a broad usefulness in a variety of
applications.
The "faster and lower power" argument can be applied to any piece of IP
you care to name; just for certain functions the transition to hard silicon
makes sense - multipliers, DSP, SERDES, Ethernet MACs, etc. I'm not
quite convinced (yet!) that this is true of MicroBlaze/Nios (yet!).
> > What's wrong with the PowerPC core?
> Let's see - Price, die area....
The price premium of FPGAs with hard processor IP is artificial and it
will be eroded in time. The efficiency of a hard microblaze/Nios in terms
of MIPS/mm^2 will surely, surely be much worse than that of a
processor core that was designed specifically for 90nm.
> > Developing and testing your design in FPGA and then hardening it just
before
> > putting it into mass production is rather like wearing a life-jacket in
the
> > harbour and then throwing it overboard as you set out to sea...
> Which is why you might want move the proven stuff into HardCopy (or
> whatever), and keep the smaller, fluid portion, in FPGA.
"Proven" has always been a relative term. By the time you've "proved" that
your design is perfect, it's most likely a bit late to be ordering mask
sets.
Was your "soft-boundary" idea intended to stay on a single die? That would
certainly be interesting, maybe even useful in limited contexts.
>What are the applications it is most widely used right now, and what will be the applications that it will be highly used in a near future?
Moving from parallel processing and custom control logic towards custom
embedded applications; I do not mean software running on a soft/hard
embedded processor but the actual application in its gate level
representation (a gate level packet sorting and forwarding app
_WITHOUT_ the RTOS overhead, etc.)
>power and clock speed as major bottlenecks?
I believe Moore's law has proven that processes and design
methodologies have kept u:, I have very high expectations on the
EDA/CAD vendors to continue providing ways to manage these.
Jeff Cunningham wrote:
> lovesinghal wrote:
>
> > Currently, on average, a consumer (who may own cellphone, camera,
> > camcorder, ipod, etc.) owns zero FPGAs. Do you see this ratio of number
> > of FPGAs/consumer changing?
>
> There was a thread here recently where someone saw a Spartan3 part in
> their new flatscreen TV.
Here is a link to some of the Consumer Products which use FPGA's today.
Ben Jones wrote:
> Interesting!
>
>
>>eg Why do we have HW multipliers & DSP blocks now ? - because they
>>are much faster, and lower power, than FPGA fabric solutions.
>
>
> They are also functions with a broad usefulness in a variety of
> applications.
> The "faster and lower power" argument can be applied to any piece of IP
> you care to name; just for certain functions the transition to hard silicon
> makes sense - multipliers, DSP, SERDES, Ethernet MACs, etc. I'm not
> quite convinced (yet!) that this is true of MicroBlaze/Nios (yet!).
The NiosII is relatively new ( as lifelines go ) so not for 2005, but
for 2006, or 2007 - imagine a low end Cyclone, with NIOS in the corner ?
>
>
>>>What's wrong with the PowerPC core?
>>
>>Let's see - Price, die area....
>
>
> The price premium of FPGAs with hard processor IP is artificial and it
> will be eroded in time. The efficiency of a hard microblaze/Nios in terms
> of MIPS/mm^2 will surely, surely be much worse than that of a
> processor core that was designed specifically for 90nm.
Why ?
NIOS and Microblaze are fpga resource optimised, but that is not
mutually exclusive to any process level.
Altera will have numbers already on what a simple hardcopy NIOS port
does, and probably also a good idea on what a little effort can do, were
they to make it a more tuned HW cell.
My guess is we will see this [HW FPGA.Cpu] first from Altera, as they
do not have a PPC, and already have the flows.
<snip>
>
> Was your "soft-boundary" idea intended to stay on a single die? That would
> certainly be interesting, maybe even useful in limited contexts.
Yes. Look at the ST STW22000 device, the Cell processor?, and the
Triscend devices. They all focus on the approach that "some FPGA is a
good idea". Most discussion here is ASIC _OR_ FPGA - but why not offer
both ? - start to be intelligent about what resource moves to HW/ASIC,
and what stays in the smaller/simpler FPGA corner of the die ?
The tools are probably good enough now, the flows are proven.
I think the new Xilinx Strip die/flip chip would make this
relatively easy to do, engineering wise.
The politics is another matter
Subroto Datta wrote:
> Here is a link to some of the Consumer Products which use FPGA's
> today.
>
> http://www.altera.com/corporate/cust...y-consumer.jsp
This is interesting... it mentions Gibson Guitar Corp. as one of the
customers for the Cyclone. And every time I install ISE, I see a picture
of Gibson proclaiming "Spartan-3 - I made it my ASIC". Looks like
they're using a Cyclone for one product and decided to use Spartan-3 for
another. "The best of both worlds" in one company