> I don't think
> that FPGA would ever be the right choice for this type of volume
> applications. If I plan to sell one million of units, I don't care much if
> I have to spend one million dollars for ASIC setup, if then one chip will
> cost one dollar (ASIC) instead of ten (FPGA).

Look at the trend in the cost of ASIC setup. Compare that with
the trend in FPGA gates-per-dollar. Look five years ahead. Now
consider a choice between ASIC setup of $2M and an FPGA
costing $3. Which would you choose? Once you've had to do a
couple of re-spins because your design wasn't quite right first time,
your FPGA is looking very cheap. And that's before you factor in
the time-to-market advantage.

Making chips is really hard, and is getting harder. More and more
companies are realizing that it makes good business sense to let
somone else take the hit on sub-micron design, qualification and
testing. This leaves their engineers more time for inventing things
that actually add value.

Me? I think FPGAs will kill cell-based ASIC within ten years.
How's that for optimism? :-)

-Ben-